One of the most significant differences between a new and seasoned bettor is their ability to push aside their emotions. Emotions can cloud a bettor’s judgments and perceptions, which can spiral into a series of losses. One way our emotions can warp our judgments is through confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that involves people privileging and looking for information that supports their beliefs or confirms their biases. Confirmation bias is particularly brutal on a bettor’s game because it’s typically very subtle. Bettors seldom pick up on their biases and usually think they’re being rational. Here are some common ways of confirmation bias manifesting in betting.
Limited Research
This mistake isn’t exclusive to betting. For instance, in politics, people may only pursue information that paints their candidate positively and their opponents negatively. Similarly, while betting, a bettor may have a hunch about who’ll win a match, or they may favor one team. With that subconsciously in mind, they’ll research information that confirms their beliefs, such as why a certain team will win over another.
For instance, if someone’s betting on a soccer match, they may support Manchester United over Chelsea. They may also think that the former will win. As a result, their research will be directed at why the former will win or the latter will lose.
Rejecting Opposing Views
Favoring and looking for information that supports your biases is one side of the confirmation-bias coin. The other side is rejecting and avoiding information that contradicts your opinions. Initially, confirmation bias was understood to affect how people research. Recently, our understanding of confirmation bias has expanded also to explain how people don’t research. If people with confirmation bias stumble upon contradictory information, they’ll typically ignore or reject it.
Overvaluing Money-line Wins
Confirmation bias isn’t necessarily limited to how you research (or don’t). For instance, some bettors may view their moneyline wins as a measure of how well they’re doing. This is an instance of confirmation bias because bettors ignore the nature of their and moneyline bets. Firstly, moneyline bets aren’t as specific as something like an over/under bet, so you have better odds of winning them. Secondly, you may also consistently be betting on the favorites, which further raises your odds of winning.
To overcome confirmation bias, you need to start practicing and accumulating experience. To get started with sports betting, visit us at Bets Hall for the best online sportsbooks, such as Bet365. We’ll help you open a betting account and start betting.
