Most sports bettors typically think their bets are based on sound and rational premises. They do their research, ask for other peoples’ opinions, and make the best decision based on this information.
This process of establishing the most likely result given the evidence is called abductive reasoning (contrary to popular belief, this is what Sherlock Holmes does). However, as much as we wish we could reason as well and quickly as Sherlock Holmes, we face some obstacles.
The leader of those obstacles is confirmation bias, which is effectively every sports bettor’s kryptonite. Here’s what confirmation bias is and what causes it.
What is Confirmation Bias?
It refers to a cognitive bias to favor, look for, and recall information that supports your beliefs and hypotheses. Confirmation bias is by no means exclusive to betting; you’ll find people prone to the bias in politics, religion, education, and more. A simple way to identify someone with the bias is observing their response if you challenge their beliefs. They’ll probably retaliate with an emotionally-charged outburst.
To understand the bias, consider this example. Say your friend, a Packers fan, claims that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback. Another friend retorts, saying Tom Brady is better because he’s won five super bowls relative to Rodgers’ one. The Packers fan replies by deferring to an analyst, who also believes Rodgers is better.
Here, instead of bringing up a metric across which Rodgers is better than Brady, the Packers fan defends his position by bringing up the analyst’s opinion. Rodgers could be better than Brady, but his superiority is not because an analyst said so. The fan considering only information that supports his view is an instance of confirmation bias.
What Causes Confirmation Bias?
The most salient cause of confirmation bias is that revising your beliefs or having them questioned is very uncomfortable. To avoid that discomfort, people will typically find information that supports their belief and suggests that they’re right.
Besides that, other common causes of confirmation bias are hope and passion. Some people will subconsciously think that hoping something happens will make it happen. Other people will feel so strongly for a team that they’ll bet on their feelings instead of what is actually probable.
Overcoming confirmation bias comes with time and experience. If you’re ready to start, visit Bets Hall for a list of the best online sportsbooks and sports betting sites on the internet. They can also help you decide which bookmaker to open your online betting account with and how.
